https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PpLdM3vCm3fIZaS40iEQSd0EjVbn6exJC_YskRURjy8/edit?usp=sharing
I used regression analysis based on a scatterplot of route yields plotted against stage length to calculate a stage length adjustment formula that I have applied to United to rank their stations according to Q3 2022 O&D domestic revenue data with yield adjusted to United’s average stage length of 1400 miles. Given UA’s widely varying fleet with very different CASM on a CRJ200 versus a B737-900ER, for example, a higher yielding station is not necessarily more profitable as this analysis only includes revenue and also ignores the load factor of a station as well as all the effects circuity has on costs and revenue allocation for multi-segment itineraries.
The data is at the station level, including total United domestic departing O&D from that station, average one-way market fare, reported passenger yield, and stage length adjusted passenger yield.
Again, all this is experimental, took a lot of work to compile which could have led to mistakes I haven’t caught yet, and is only as accurate as the data provided to the USDOT and the accuracy of my regression analysis.
Please tell me any thoughts, suggestions for improvement, or any ideas on how to apply this to carriers with connecting traffic (it’s a puzzle I still have yet to figure out, and depends on the accuracy of this first stage)
Thanks,
J Green.
Based on one further level of analysis (an experimental yield adjustment for circuitry of multisegment itineraries), I can come up with what I believe at my current level of analytical ability, are UA’s best and worst stations by domestic stage length-adjusted yield. Note that this is not the same as profitability as it does not include adjustments for operating cost and load factor, but it is at least some kind of proxy for route performance.
United’s Best Stations By Domestic Only Stage Length Adjusted Yield + Circuity Adjustment
- Eagle, CO (EGE)
- Aspen, CO (ASE)
- McAllen, TX (MFE)
- Sun Valley, ID (SUN)
- Durango, CO (DRO)
- Harlingen, TX (HRL)
- Jackson, WY (JAC)
- Gunnison, CO (GUC)
- Pasco, WA (PSC)
- Santa Fe, NM (SAF)
Brownsville, TX (BRO) and Helena, MT (HLN) make this list without my experimental circuity adjustment and Pasco (PSC) and Jackson (JAC) leave the list.
United’s Worst Stations By Domestic Only Stage Length Adjusted Yield + Circuity Adjustment
- Bishop, CA (BIH)
- Ft. Leonard Wood, MO (EAS Subsidized)
- Paducah, KY (EAS Subsidized)
- Myrtle Beach, SC
- Hobbs, NM
- Pueblo, CO (EAS subsidized)
- Burbank, CA
- Jamestown, ND (EAS subsidized)
- Salina, KS (EAS subsidized)
- Aguadilla, PR